Not long ago, Chen Lei, chairman of Shenzhen Cabbage Technology, gave an example: "Last year, when cantaloupe was listed, the price in Jiangnan market was about two yuan, while in Nanning market it was two yuan and three yuan. As a result, in two days, a large number of cantaloupe entered Nanning market, but two days later, the price of cantaloupe in Nanning market dropped to 1.6 yuan." Chen Lei explained that the reason was "lack of planning. Market gaming surplus ".
Can this phenomenon be avoided?
Agricultural electricity vendors sell more than just produce
As a vendor, selling goods at a good price is the hard way to survive. However, whether this car can make money depends not on data and technology, but on personal experience and luck, relying on the "only good" business. If the vendors can predict the arrival and sale of cantaloupe in the wholesale market in advance and the price fluctuation of cantaloupe in this period, can the occurrence probability of this phenomenon be reduced? Of course you can.
"Cabbage +" aims to build the bottom layer of bulk agricultural product circulation data in China's 43 agricultural batch markets, link tens of thousands or even 100,000 professional wholesalers through the physical market of bulk agricultural product circulation across the country, and then master 150 billion transaction data. When these data run on the same platform, we can fully predict the transaction situation of a certain item in a certain region at a certain time. This is exactly the core service required by merchants and the market. I guess this is also the core dream of "Cabbage +", which is the so-called data mining and value reengineering.
Data is the foundation of an enterprise's survival in the Internet era. An enterprise without data is like a human without brain. Without brain, one cannot think and predict. The same is true for enterprises, but also for society? The common "unsalable" in our agricultural production, can the situation be improved? Of course, the crux of the question is what farmers rely on to guide production and management? Unfortunately, although we are now in a highly developed intelligent society, the production and operation of agriculture is still in the traditional era of "experience". What to plant, how much to plant and how to plant are mainly based on personal experience. Neither the government nor the enterprises have access to accurate data, let alone scientific analysis. "Slow sales" becomes the inevitable result of farmers' misjudgment of the market, and it is farmers who ultimately pay for the losses, and this vicious cycle repeats itself.
Today, there is no shortage of agricultural e-commerce companies with diverse models in the market. What is lacking is the Internet companies that can capture agricultural data and make good use of it. But, then again, if a company does not master bulk order and transaction data, talk of "big data" is a lie, data only based on dynamic transactions, can play its data value.
"Cabbage +" is the first Internet enterprise in China that tries to establish data base service through agricultural batch market. It is rapidly linking the transaction data of dozens of domestic agricultural batch markets. According to the current development, it is not so much an agricultural B2B enterprise as an agricultural big data company, which ostensibly sells agricultural products but essentially sells agricultural data. This is the Blue ocean market of the future.
In recent years, the rapid rise of fresh B2C, agricultural B2B fierce battle is hot, all kinds of community O2O dazzling, who can laugh last? I think it must be those enterprises that master agricultural big data, and must be good at mining and building data value.
Great circulation of agricultural products insurmountable 4B transaction chain
Now that it's apple season, let's see what it takes to get to your mouth.
We break down the trading chain of Apple and summarize it into four types of trading subjects:
1)B1, is the producer, mainly fruit farmers, cooperatives, production enterprises.
2)B2, is a processor, mainly sorting, hardbound fruit enterprises.
3)B3 is the distributor, mainly composed of vendors, wechat business and wholesalers.
4)B4, is a retailer, mainly e-commerce, supermarkets, community stores, fruit stores, etc.
Wang Haibo, the founder of net database, once talked about the similar 4B theory, but agriculture is special, and there are B5, B6 and B7 in the actual transaction, and the transaction model is more complex.
Take apple as an example. B1 is the grower of apple primary products; B2 is the brand owner with classification, sorting, hardcover and storage capabilities; B3 is all kinds of businessmen or entrepreneurs engaged in apple business; and B4 is all kinds of common retail channels for consumer terminals.
The apple's sales path looks like this:
Scenario 1: B1→B2→ Agricultural batch market →B3→B4→C(Consumer)
Scenario 2: B1→B2→B3→B4→C(Consumer)
The main difference between scenario 1 and Scenario 2 is that the former goes to the wholesale market, while the latter goes directly to the distributor or end retailer instead of the wholesale market.
The wholesale market is usually the main distribution center to guarantee the dining table demand of the city residents, such as Shenzhen Haijixing Wholesale Market and Chengdu Wholesale Market of Agricultural products. The agricultural products circulating here guarantee the living demand of almost 80% of the city residents. However, the transactions in the traditional wholesale market are almost completed offline by upstream and downstream enterprises, and the traditional wholesale market does not grasp the transaction data, which is exactly the market vacancy of the agricultural batch market. The above "Scenario 1" is exactly the online trading model that Cabbage + strives to achieve. It hopes to build an online version of the agricultural batch market, provide more accurate business prediction for upstream and downstream enterprises through data services, and help merchants expand additional market opportunities.
Agricultural B2B, fresh B2C, community O2O, no matter what they call it, in essence, they still use the Internet to do retail. We combined with the above 4B transaction model, review the development of fresh e-commerce in recent years.
The competitive advantage of agricultural e-commerce in the future from the trading chain
1) Fresh B2C promotes direct sourcing mode of origin
2012 was a very ordinary year, but an orange made it all the more dazzling. "Chu Orange" reflected not only Chu Shijian's craftsman spirit, but also promoted the development of direct sourcing mode of fresh e-commerce in origin from a positive perspective of the industry.
The success of "Chu Orange" is closely related to the original life network "buyer" system, "buyer" can go deep into the origin to find good goods and integrate the supply chain, which is a fresh e-commerce innovation.
Fresh B2C trading chain is: B4-2-C. The original life is B4, but B4 needs the origin B1 to achieve direct sourcing of origin, and the actual transaction chain is B1-B4-C.
In reality, open the website or APP of fresh e-commerce, there are a wide variety of products, but more SKUs actually contain B1, B2, B3 and other groups. Therefore, this transaction chain is still the online version of the traditional B1-B2-B3-B4-C. We still have a long way to go from the pure origin of direct purchasing.
Fresh electricity business, although there are many dark horse, but careful comparison, in fact, there is no more core difference, your home sells Aksu apple, his family is selling, the difference is different production areas and prices, and different copywriting stories.
In this context, how can we realize the "deintermediation" advocated by Internet thinking and truly realize the direct mining model of "B1-2-C"? Only by giving full play to the value of big data, when the order quantity of a certain product is large enough and stable enough, we will be able to carry out order agriculture together with the upstream base with the order, and the product standardization and upstream and downstream supply chain will be controllable, so that the enterprise will be able to achieve lower transaction costs and higher transaction efficiency.
Through consumption data, reverse transformation of agricultural upstream production activities, which will be the core strategy of fresh B2C to establish competition barriers in the next three years.
2) Distributors promote the transformation and upgrading of agricultural industry
In September 2014, Alibaba listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The next day, Jack Ma eagerly announced the plan of "thousands of counties and thousands of villages", saying that he would invest 10 billion yuan to develop e-commerce in rural areas. On that day, I was in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, specially attending the opening ceremony of Taobao's special China Inner Mongolia Pavilion. Jin Jianhang, the president of Alibaba, flew to the site from the United States to celebrate and announced Jack Ma's plan.
"Characteristic China" is a channel of Taobao.com, which aims to gather characteristic agricultural products from all over the country, set up local agricultural products pavilions in the name of provincial, city and county governments, and select professional operators to be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the pavilions. In less than two years, hundreds of Chinese TP service providers with characteristics have been born across the country. Almost all of these businesses are outside the agricultural circle. Because of this cause, people begin to engage in agriculture and agricultural products, and their main task is to sell good local agricultural products in the library.
The transaction chain of such distributors is: B3-2-C. The TP service provider is B3, which is actually a government-authorized distributor of agricultural products, but it implements the C-end service through Taobao.
Today's "characteristic China" has become a thing of the past, and TP merchants have gradually withdrawn from the stage. However, these people are the first ones in China to sell agricultural products through the Internet. After three years of precipitation and fissure, they have led a large number of people to engage in agricultural e-commerce, agricultural brand and agricultural marketing, which is a positive significance.
The only pity is that they are very dependent on Taobao traffic, and they are in the middle of the most embarrassing link. No matter upstream or downstream, they can't get valuable data. They live on the price difference of commodities and government services, and few of them have truly settled sustainable value.
3) The new wechat business promotes the new farmers to go to the countryside
In 2013, with the rise of wechat, fan economy became the mainstream. In 2015, wechat business was at its peak. A large number of young talents were born in the agricultural circle. Through the past experience to build agricultural products brand, through the community development distribution team, many micro business have their own brand and system, more or less accumulated a group of loyal fans.
There are two main scenarios in the transaction chain of wechat business:
Scenario 1: B1-2-C, namely direct supply of goods from the place of origin, selling directly to consumers through their circle of friends or distributors.
Scene 2: B3-2-C, that is, the place of origin cooperates with the B2 brand of the place, selling the brand of the cooperative enterprise to earn the price difference.
Professional wechat business usually do scene one, he will carefully build their own brand, and try to establish their own procurement standards in the origin. Easy to play wechat business, usually download graphic service package, send wechat circle of friends, from which to earn a price difference. But wechat business has two defects, one is that there is no systematic marketing system, selling goods to earn interest rate spread is the only means of profit, can not precipitate the value; Second, wechat business is basically a single product entry, and limited scale, it is difficult to obtain stable and large numbers of order data, it is always difficult to reach the upstream agricultural production.
4) Future B2B competition in agriculture will be the ability to integrate sales land
The circulation of bulk agricultural products is mainly divided into two markets, one is the origin market, the other is the sales market. Today's agricultural B2B enterprises in the market, mostly in the "sales market" to optimize and transform the supply chain of agricultural products. Agricultural B2B transaction chain mainly focuses on B3-2-B(restaurants, canteen-halls, etc.). It is difficult for enterprises to get goods in the upper reaches of the supply source, and more than 80% are supplied through B1 and B2 in the upper reaches.
The above is actually the model of the "land sale market" trading chain. This business format does not create "increment", but is the stage of transferring offline "stock" to online, and the old capital will always be exhausted. Creating "increment" is a huge challenge facing agricultural B2B, and also the core of building barriers in the next three years.
For example, a restaurant in a city consumes 10,000 cabbages per day (assuming no change in a short period), which is the stock consumption. In the absence of B2B, these cabbages are sold to the restaurant through traditional vendors. When B2B is introduced, part of the business of these vendors will be replaced by B2B, and their orders will decline. The fundamental reason is that the city residents will not desperately eat more cabbage because of B2B, and the consumption of cabbage did not increase.
However, we see opportunities for e-commerce to create incremental growth. The city still eats 10,000 cabbages, but restaurants now demand more green and organic standard cabbages. To meet the demand, B2B companies will force the upstream base to provide better cabbages, which may be in any province or city. B2B creates a new vegetable supply channel through its own supply chain, which is the process of creating new demand and new value.
There will always be a time when the stock will run out, and if the company cannot seize on the trend to create increment (value added), the company will hit the ceiling of greater growth. "Cabbage +" leverages 43 agricultural batch markets across the country to unite and integrate the needs of tens of thousands or even 100,000 merchants, which is expected to create a new value ecology. Through ecological integration of production and marketing data, better market models can be established through data, so as to be able to carry out large-scale production, customized production and targeted supply chain integration, and ultimately contribute value to the upstream and downstream, so as to reduce costs, improve efficiency and promote industrial upgrading.
"Why is everyone so tired? The main reason is that upstream agricultural production is too fragmented, "laments Chen Lei, chairman of Shenzhen Cabbage Technology Co. The words are right, so how do you avoid fragmentation? The downstream integration of consumption data, the upstream integration of agricultural production, the middle integration of production and marketing supply chain, this is our expected agricultural ecology.
"Cabbage +" is more like an Internet interface based on B2B information matching. It builds the data base of bulk agricultural products trading and provides data services for upstream and downstream enterprises. It links not only wholesalers, but also peripheral enterprises such as fresh food e-commerce, processing and distribution providers, wechat business, etc., matches the data needed by upstream and downstream, and even provides warehousing and supply chain landing services. Help partners to build a positive ecology of agriculture. More than just talk about it, "cabbage +" will be a revolutionary type of hard battle, but it is significant.
By Simba
Founder of the New Agricultural Business School
Agricultural e-commerce doer, founder of new farmers, rural e-commerce leader, a number of county/municipal government e-commerce consultant, Sohu, Hu Hsiu network and other new media column writer, wrote millions of words, county e-commerce, agricultural e-commerce, agricultural marketing, enterprise transformation and other hot articles were reprinted by the major media across the country.
