/PRCWT/Guangzhou, February 13, 2023——The Met Office has given another update on the forthcoming Sudden Stratospheric Warning event and what this could mean for extreme weather in the UK. It has said it will be monitoring the impact of the weather event over the coming weeks.
The SSW is due over the next week or so, but the Met Office has once again made clear that a period of very cold weather does not necessarily follow. It said any impact is unlikely to be felt until the end of the month and into February.
There is speculation over a 'wall of snow', an 'Arctic blast' and 'freezing air' heading the UK's way. But the Met Office is stressing in its UK long-range forecasts that a "period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a small possibility and could bring spells of wintry weather" in the first half of March.
The Met Office was responding to a tweet asking if there was truth in the news that we are going to have a big freeze soon. It said: "A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is forecast to take place over the next week or so, however this does not mean that a 'Beast from the East' will occur like in 2018.
"Any impacts on the UK as a result of an SSW are unlikely to be felt until the end of February to the beginning of March. We will be monitoring this period closely as the SSW unfolds."
Gloucestershire Met Office forecast
In Gloucestershire, we can expect lots of settled weather in the next seven days with temperatures up to 13C by Friday and only falling as low as 5C overnight. Only a tiny amount of rain could fall on Thursday morning.
Monday (February 13) witll be dry with sunny intervals with temperatures from 4C to 9C. Valentine's Day is looking sunny with some cloud over the early evening. Temperatures up to 12C and down to 5C.
Wednesday to Sunday are looking cloudy but with the mercury around 11C to 13C at its height and on Thursday, only falling back to 9C. At times, it will be overcast.
South West Met Office forecast
Across the South West, Monday will be cloudy with some sunny spells. The Met Office says it will feel relatively mild, but cooler in the further west in the breeze.
Overnight into Tuesday, it could feel chillier than recent nights and there could be some rural frosts and fog. These fog patches will clear in the morning for a day featuring sunny intervals and it will feel mild with the mercury higher than the seasonal average.
The outlook for Wednesday to Friday is a bit more changeable, with more cloud and outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds. But it will emain mild, with a reducing chance of overnight frosts.
UK long range Met Office forecast
Friday, February 17 to Sunday, February 26
Friday is likely to be changeable, with widespread cloud and some organised rain moving eastwards through the day, followed by clearer conditions with sunny spells and showers, heavy at times in the north. The driest conditions are expected in the southeast, with a few sunny spells possible at first. Winds generally light to start, but increasing through the day with the strongest winds around northern coasts.
Through the rest of the period, low pressure located to the northwest could bring frontal systems, with associated spells of rain and stronger winds in the north and northwest. The south and east are likely to see drier, more settled conditions, but more unsettled periods remain possible, bringing some wetter and windier weather. Temperatures overall rather mild, but overnight frost and fog could develop.
Monday, February 27 to Monday, March 13
The end of February is likely to see a continuation of changeable conditions, with the wettest and windiest weather most probable across the northwest. The south and east may see some shorter spells of wet weather, although overall conditions should remain drier and more settled. Into March, high pressure is expected to develop to the north of the UK and low pressure to the south.
This is likely to introduce a north-south split, with drier conditions across the north and wetter conditions in the south. Temperatures expected to be mostly around average, but a period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a small possibility and could bring spells of wintry weather.
What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
An explanation on the Met Office website reads: "In recent years some extreme cold, winter snow events have all been connected to the surface effects of sudden stratospheric warmings, such as those in 2009-10, 2013, and ‘the beast from the east’ in 2018. You may be asking why it is called a warming then, if it lead to cold conditions?
"The term sudden stratospheric warming refers to what is observed in the stratosphere:- a rapid warming (up to about 50 °C in just a couple of days), between 10 km and 50 km above the earth’s surface. This is so high up that we don’t feel the ‘warming’ ourselves. However, usually a few weeks later, we can start to see knock-on effects on the jet stream, which in turn effects our weather lower down (in the troposphere).
"However, the stratospheric sudden warming doesn’t happen every year, and it doesn’t always affect our weather when it does."
