A draft amendment to the Law on Population and Family Planning was first deliberated at the 18th session of the 12th National People's Congress Standing Committee on the morning of December 21. The amendment, which will take effect on January 1, 2016, means the one-child policy will officially come to an end next Friday and compulsory contraception will become a thing of the past, according to the draft. The full opening of the two-child good, and will bring us the toy industry what positive impact? Is it as optimistic as I hope? At the moment, Zhengzhou Eurasia preschool education exhibition invited industry toy industry personnel conducted a survey and analysis!
December 2015: The universal two-child policy is announced, which seems to be widely expected. Because it is highly expected to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's economy, the resulting "baby boom" has directly or indirectly boosted related industries, including maternal and infant medical care, children's medicine, milk powder, maternal and infant daily necessities, toys, infant education, children's clothing, automobiles and other categories.
Toys, for the moment, are prominently included in the list of beneficiaries, whether as luxuries or necessities. According to industry insiders reflect this policy is the country to give the market heavy good, market opportunity to come! The sale of toys can be bigger, but the market competition will be more intense! There will be opportunities and challenges, but I think the demand opportunities will outweigh the competition challenges. Plan ahead, opportunities will be left to those who are ready!
We can learn several key words: "support", "opportunity", "cross-border", which is perhaps the toy industry's first understanding of the policy.
Opportunity: The implementation of universal two-child policy has aroused the warm praise of the whole people, and many post-80s people who have been waiting for a long time begin to plan their second child. It is expected that one to two million new babies will be born every year, and more than 20 million new babies will be born in 2018. By 2020, the consumption market capacity of children aged 0 to 3 years old will reach 1.3 trillion yuan, which will significantly increase the consumer demand for infant and child products and services. The market of maternal and infant products will be the first to benefit, while the related markets of milk powder, diapers, baby strollers and toy preschool education will be the first to be affected, and usher in another spring of development.
The challenge: But we cannot simply assume that the market dividend for a "first child" is 1 and conclude that the market dividend for a "second child" is 2. In modern society, life pressure and economic pressure from all sides cannot be ignored. There is still a gap between parents' fertility intention and the number of babies actually born. At the same time, with the popularization of parenting knowledge and the intensification of social competition, although the consumption willingness and consumption ability of children's parents in the field of maternal and child care are growing, the requirements for the scientific, convenient and quality of parenting products or services will be increasingly high. So this is a time of opportunity and challenge for the toy industry.
Undoubtedly, the increase in the number of children in the early stage of the toy industry may pull faster, and then it may enter the adjustment period of differentiation and integration, the gross profit will be flat, the industry concentration will be further improved, and the competition will be further intensified.
Cross-border development: As a category of maternal and child products, toys, like other categories, consumers pay more attention to the characteristics of "experience" and "interaction". Under the catalyst of favorable policies, the toy industry may broaden its horizon and try a beneficial cross-industry combination with related industries, such as medical treatment, children's medicine, milk powder, maternal and infant daily necessities, infant education, children's clothing, automobiles, etc.
In the future, we believe that only those enterprises and platforms that can provide high-quality, scientific and convenient one-stop comprehensive services will have the opportunity to survive and develop.
